Recent events overseas in Iran and Russia have highlighted the actions of autocratic governments, as well as the challenges they pose to the United States and its democratic allies across the globe.
In Iran, the nation is dealing with a wave of demonstrations caused by the abuses of religious security forces – the so-called “Guidance Patrols,” beholden to the country’s autocratic Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The religious police have been accused of beating to death a young Kurdish woman who was not “properly wearing” her hijab – the head covering worn by some Muslim women – which is required by Iran’s strict Islamic laws.
The death of the otherwise healthy 22-year-old woman has ignited a firestorm of resistance to the theocratic Iranian regime, the likes of which haven’t been seen in the country since rioting after the disputed elections of 2009.
How Tehran has so far responded to the crisis is straight out of the Autocracy 101 playbook. First of all, the regime blocked internet and cellphone access in Tehran and other major cities to impede the protesters’ ability to communicate and coordinate their activities.
Following an initial attempt to head off the crisis with hollow promises of thoroughly investigating the incident, the authorities have switched to a standard autocratic response; violent repression of the demonstrations. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has rightly condemned Iran’s brutal crackdown of the uprising, resulting so far in up to 75 deaths per the BBC, as well as its “Big Brother” communications control.
In another sign of Tehran’s desperation, the regime launched drone and missile strikes on Sept. 28 against Kurdish targets in neighboring Iraq, claiming that the demonstrations in Iran are the work of outside agitators. This is a tried-and-true ploy of autocratic governments – when there are internal challenges to the country’s leadership, at all cost avoid accountability by blaming “external forces,” in this case the Kurds in Iraq and their American supporters.
Meanwhile, Russia’s autocrat-in-chief, President Vladimir Putin, continues to offer a graduate-level course in the practice of dictatorship. Starting with the partial mobilization of 300,000 troops to ostensibly reverse Russia’s losses in its “war of choice” against Ukraine, to the violent crackdown against the resulting protests, to the utterly shameless forced referendums in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, to the recent sabotage in the Baltic Sea of the Nord Stream pipelines, to regime opponents dying in mysterious circumstances, to the ominous saber-rattling about using nuclear weapons, Putin has single-handedly transformed Russia into a global pariah, and dragged the world toward the abyss of a wider conflict.
The Iranian situation is of serious concern for Washington and our allies, as Tehran may be tempted to stoke regional conflict with Iraq and/or Saudi Arabia to appeal to Iranian nationalism and deflect attention from the social and economic failures of the regime. Furthermore, the potential for political instability in a country of Iran’s size and import brings myriad challenges to countries throughout the critical Persian Gulf basin.
Meanwhile, the recent moves by Moscow with respect to the Ukraine war are undoubtedly pinging on the “crisis meter” in Western capitals. It seems clear that the annexation into Russia of the occupied areas in Ukraine will be used by Putin to claim that future Ukrainian attacks will be against sovereign Russian territory. Should Ukraine continue to make advances into those regions, Putin will likely trot out the “Ukraine is invading Russia” line as justification for upping the ante in the conflict, to include the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons.
If that were to happen, how should the U.S. administration respond? Would a limited Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine precipitate a U.S. military reaction? What then?
Strap in as the autocracy vs. democracy global struggle heats up.
Robert Beck of Peterborough served for 30 years overseas with the United States government in embassies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. He now teaches foreign policy classes at Keene State College’s Cheshire Academy for Lifelong Learning.