If one sentence can explain the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Franklin Pierce University professor Frank Cohen said it is this one – Switzerland and Finland are no longer neutral.
“Sweden’s asking to join (NATO). Finland’s asking to join,” he said, in addition to famously neutral Switzerland leveling sanctions on Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. “Finland was never a part of NATO when there was a Soviet Union. That’s the hardening of the line between the West and Russia.”
Cohen, an associate professor of political science at Franklin Pierce, will present “The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022: How Did International War Make a Comeback in Europe?” Wednesday, March 9, at 6:30 p.m. at Jaffrey Public Library.
Cohen plans to speak about the Pax Americana after World War II – including the concept of no nation undermining the sovereignty of another — brought unprecedented peace and prosperity to Western Europe even during the Cold War with the former Soviet Union.
Then, after the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union fell, the result was democratization and market reforms in Eastern Europe, European integration, NATO expansion and free trade.
“People thought that would be the way of the world forever,” he said.
Although Cohen said the relationship between Russia, Europe and NATO was an uneasy one and seemed like it was deteriorating, he still expected the parties to be able to coexist for the foreseeable future, until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“It’s kind of shocking to see it end,” he said.
The difference this time, Cohen said, is that whereas NATO previously let it be when Putin was aggressive toward Georgia or Crimea, the return of major war to the continent has brought together Europe in a way he suspects Putin probably did not expect.
“I think he thought they were going to stay divided,” he said. “Europe is, because of this invasion, suddenly more unified.”
Cohen believes the war will strengthen the NATO alliance further and make it more militarized, including all of its members spending more than 2% of their gross domestic products on defense, something that former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump sought.
“Europe is no longer considering itself just a trading partner of Russia, like it has been” he said. “Is Russia going to be able to sell oil to Europe now? I don’t know.”
And if the invasion is successful in absorbing Ukraine, Cohen believes NATO and the European Union will cut themselves off from Russia.
“It’ll sort of be like the Cold War starting all over again,” he said.
If Ukraine does survive, he expects the country to quickly seek EU and NATO membership.
“No one’s going to be worried anymore whether it angers Russia or not,” he said.
Cohen has been teaching international politics since the end of the Cold War, and is in his 24th year at Franklin Pierce. He said his students are very interested in the Russia-Ukraine war, and have been discussing it a lot in class.
“They’re trying to wrap their heads around it,” he said.
At Jaffrey Public Library Wednesday, Cohen will discuss the Pax Americana, the end of the Cold War and the return of international war to Europe. He also plans to answer questions during his presentation.
“I don’t want to just sort of lecture,” he said.
Registration is required for the event. For information or to register, call the library at 603-532-7301. Jaffrey Public Library adheres to a universal masking policy and masks will be required for all in attendance, regardless of vaccination status.