According to Monadnock Community Hospital’s Chief Medical Officer Michael Lindberg, the seasonal influenza can typically begin showing up somewhere around early December.
It varies from year to year, but Lindberg said a good rule of thumb is for people to seek out their flu vaccine before the end of November to be sure they are properly protected against the virus as it begins to spread north from the Southern Hemisphere. And this year, with the COVID-19 pandemic still ever present, it might be the most important year on record for the community to get their vaccination.
“That’s really the most critical thing we can do,” Lindberg said.
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to infect people across the globe – with numbers in New Hampshire climbing as the state announced 205 new positive tests on Saturday and another 133 on Sunday resulting in 1,352 active cases and 38 current hospitalizations – Lindberg said the combination of both viruses this winter could create a perfect storm.
“Because we will have the flu in the area and we will have COVID-19 in the area,” Lindberg said. “You’re doubling the problem we’re dealing with.”
And the worry is that the hospital system is going to be stressed by the presence of the two viruses.
“If you find someone who has these symptoms, getting them home and away from people is the most important,” said Stephen Gelhbach, a retired epidemiologist in Jaffrey.
While the numbers in the U.S. continue to climb, Europe has also seen a resurgence in cases.
“This is really one mean virus,” Gehlbach said. “(Europe) thought they had it under control.”
In August, the U.S. was reporting somewhere in the vicinity of 30,000 new cases a day. In the last two weeks, those daily reports have increased and saw almost 100,000 new cases added on Friday. New Hampshire has gone from 20 news cases a day in the summer to now consistently reporting well over 100.
“That’s a huge relative increase,” Gehlbach said.
Even though he’s retired, Gehlbach has kept up to date with the latest developments surrounding the pandemic; after all, he worked his whole career planning for something like it.
“This has been absolutely fascinating, but it’s also distressing,” he said. “Any kind of disease that spreads through the air is pretty scary.”
One of the most challenging aspects of having both coronavirus and influenza present at the same time is that they are both highly contagious and showcase a number of the same symptoms.
But the difference with the flu is that there is a flu vaccine and antiviral treatments available, which means there is a way to keep the numbers of infections down or cut down the duration and severity of the virus.
“We actually have some treatments for [the flu],” Lindberg said.
While the vaccine is never 100 percent effective, Lindberg said 40 to 50 percent is a whole lot better than 100 percent failure with coronavirus since there is no vaccine. Gelhbach said he urges people to get the vaccine every year, but especially in 2020, “because that’s something we can do.”
Unfortunately, as things stand now, there is no imminent vaccine for COVID-19 and the use of drugs to combat the virus are still experimental and clinical trials have proved to be ambiguous, Lindberg said.
Gehlback said even though the coronavirus has been present in the U.S. since March – although it was likely around much earlier – there still are so many unknowns associated with the virus.
“We just keep learning new things about it,” he said. “There seems to be something new coming up all the time.”
He added that even though most predictions are saying it will be 2021 before a vaccine is available, it could be sooner.
“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there were some doses available in an emergency situation ready by the end of the year,” Gehlbach said.
From what he has learned through research and discussion with others in the epidemiology field, there are two vaccines that have enrolled more than 30,000 subjects, but the doses are two months apart and “the problem is they need people to get sick,” he said.
“The real test of it is if it prevents illness,” Gehlbach said, and the trials need to include people across all age groups, as well as with varying ethnic and racial backgrounds.
But with symptoms, like fever, cough, congestion present with both viruses, testing is really the only way to determine whether an individual has COVID-19 or influenza.
“Obviously when you have two different illnesses that look the same … it’s kind of hard to know what you’re dealing with,” Gehlbach said.
“Testing is going to be optimal. You’re not going to be able to tell otherwise,” Lindberg said.
If someone is presenting symptoms, Lindberg said the best thing is for people to stay home and stay away from others. If necessary, contact your doctor, Lindberg said, and set up a telehealth visit to determine if you need to be seen or should be tested for either or both.
“It’s highly recommended with even minor symptoms you be tested for COVID-19,” Lindberg said. “This is a different year because we have COVID-19 sitting out there.”
Monadnock Community Hospital is offering drive-through flu vaccine clinics this year to help make it readily available. A few years ago, the program wasn’t that popular, so they haven’t done it for the last couple years, but the decision was made to resume offering it thor year and it has proven to be the right choice based on its popularity.
The clinics are held on Fridays through Nov. 27. All people need to do is set up an appointment through the primary care physician.
“We’re really extending our reach,” Lindberg said. “People want the flu vaccine this year.”
Individuals can also get a COVID-19 test at MCH with a referral from their doctor.
And continuing to follow the recommended guidelines for coronavirus – handwashing, practicing social distancing, avoiding crowds and wearing a mask – will be even more crucial as flu season arrives.
“You’re protecting your fellow people,” Lindberg said. “We want people to be safe and healthy.”
Gehlbach said it all comes down to how people act. He understands the presence of pandemic fatigue, but being vigilant is still critical.
“We all feel that way, but it’s not going to change when people don’t keep away from crowds or wear masks,” Gehlbach said. “The biggest thing we can hope for is that people behave themselves because I think the idea of a really effective treatment, I’m not seeing that out there.”
But as cases of COVID-19 go up, contact tracing becomes harder and trying to isolate those potentially infected is a losing battle.
Gehlbach said “we’re still probably not where we need to be,” when it comes to testing.
“We’re a long way from getting this thing under control,” he said. “And I think the vaccine is the best hope.”
On Saturday, after more than 200 new cases were reported, Gov. Chris Sununu released the following statement: “The situation here in New Hampshire remains very serious, the data shows that community transmission is increasing, and we expect cases to rise,” Sununu said.
And as winter and flu season approaches, mixed with the pandemic, people need to understand the importance of staying the course.