Iran’s uranium enrichment
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, more commonly known as the Iran Deal, was negotiated between 2013 and 2015 and finally implemented on January 16, 2016, after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certified that Iran’s nuclear program was limited to peaceful uses and that Iran granted the Agency sufficient access to verify the agreement. The chief terms of the agreement required the U.S. and its partners to relieve severe sanctions on Iran, which principally prevented Iran from selling its oil. Iran’s nuclear program would be limited to 300 kilograms of uranium enriched to no more than 3.67%, and Iran was to allow IAEA access to monitor compliance. Thus, when Donald Trump assumed the presidency in 2017, he inherited a situation in which Iran would be incapable of building a nuclear weapon until at least 2030. This was achieved by diplomacy: There was no bombing, and the Strait of Hormuz remained open to navigation. Nevertheless, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal by reimposing the sanctions in 2018. The partners attempted to keep the deal going but could not in the absence of the U.S. Consequently, in 2019 Iran resumed uranium enrichment to the point that by mid-2025 they had about 6,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, with over 400 kilograms enriched to 60% U-235. No one encouraged Iran’s uranium enrichment program more than Donald Trump. Now Trump is pressuring Iran to make a deal. Any such deal is bound to be inferior to the one that he inherited. The responsibility for the economic pain caused by the closure of the Strait and for the wider war in the region lies squarely with Trump.