The COVID-19 situation right now is a very good example of getting to choose between glass half full and glass half empty.
Think the glass is half empty? There’s plenty to be dismayed about.
The number of new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and daily deaths are at least two times higher than they were at the peak of last spring’s surge.
A more-contagious variant of COVID-19 has been detected in the state and other variants may be here without having been spotted, since we’re not looking very hard.
New Hampshire has only been allocated enough vaccine to inoculate 1 out of every 5 people in Phase 1-B (over age 64). The other three-quarters of New Hampshire’s population is just waiting. This explains why Southern New Hampshire’s vaccination sites are booked sold through April and haven’t even begun scheduling appointments for May.
Think it’s half full? There’s plenty to celebrate.
The number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, as well as the all-important percentage of positive PCR tests, have been falling for several weeks and are about half what they were at the start of the year. The fall shows no sign of slowing, either; in particular, we’re not seeing any surge from Super Bowl parties.
The number of new cases is falling all around the country, making it less likely that people will bring COVID-19 across the border.
Deaths have also begun to fall in New Hampshire and are averaging about five a day, which is half the rate of early January. This may reflect the early vaccine emphasis on nursing homes.
As for vaccines, the number of people in New Hampshire who have received two doses is now greater than the entire population of Concord. And remember, a year ago we didn’t think we would have any vaccines at this point – we are way ahead of the game. Plus, it looks like there will be more vaccine options available before summer.
So whether you’re pumping your fist or wringing your hands right now is mostly a matter of choice. But either way, you need to keep wearing your mask and avoiding indoor crowds for a while longer.
To see daily updated charts and other news about COVID-19 in the state, keep an eye on the Monitor’s COVID-19 page at concordmonitor.com/coronavirus.
Here’s the latest weekly COVID tracker:
Number of new cases – what’s the trend? Getting better but still too high.
As of Sunday, the two-week average of new cases in the state was 380, half of the figure exactly one month ago. The average has declined 16 days in a row and that trend shows no sign of slowing.
However, this is still a lot of new cases. The figure was below 100 for the entire first eight months of the pandemic.
Number of hospitalizations – what’s the trend? Falling quickly but still high.
The 126 people in the hospital with COVID-19 on Sunday was the lowest number since Thanksgiving and is falling fast, having declined by one-third since the start of February.
As with new cases, however, that figure is higher than it had been at any point before last fall, so we have a long way to go.
Number of deaths – what’s the trend? Finally falling.
The tragedy of people dying from COVID-19 is the trailing indicator of the pandemic. Because people have to get the disease and often get hospitalized before they die, deaths is the last number to go up or down as trends change.
In the past two weeks 74 people have died, which is half the rate of deaths we were seeing one month ago. The decline in new cases plus vaccine emphasis on the most vulnerable raises hope that fatalities will continue to fall.
PCR test positivity rate – what’s the trend? Good!
On average this month, just 2.8% of PCR tests have come back positive.
That’s a nice low number. Let’s keep it that way.
(David Brooks can be reached at 369-3313 or dbrooks@cmonitor.com or on Twitter @GraniteGeek.)