People involved in the trades and health care industries should weather 2025 and beyond during the new administration in Washington, but local manufacturers and people involved in real estate might find the road ahead to have some challenges.
This is the outlook of Franklin Pierce University economist Mack Bean when asked recently about the prospects for area firms, given what President-elect Donald Trump has proposed.
“Health care, and people involved in that sector should be OK,” said Bean in his office in Monadnock Hall on the Rindge campus. “People will always be getting sick.”
Bean teaches macro and microeconomics, as well as Principles of Financial Management, among other courses at Franklin Pierce. One of his areas of research is business and entrepreneurial development with the local community. Health care and social assistance is already the second-largest sector of the state’s economy, according to the Bureau of Economic Affairs in Concord, and the NH Employment Security office has identified this slice of the economy as “recession-proof” on its website.
The trades should also fare consistently well in the new year and beyond, as well, according to Bean.
“You’re still going to need your plumbing taken care of. People always need to replace their roofs,” said Bean.
The prospects for local manufacturers if the Trump administration follows through with its pledge to impose tariffs on imports is another story. Recalling how the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs actually made the Great Depression worse, Bean mentioned a number of local firms that could be impacted if other nations respond with tariffs on local goods manufactured for export.
“Firms that make medical devices for export, such as Microspec in Peterborough and Teleflex in Jaffrey, for instance,” said Bean. “Tariffs could have a tremendous effect.”
Bean said that tariffs increase costs of foreign goods here and prompt other nations to respond with taxes on American-made goods sent to their countries.
“We need trade — coming in, and going out,” Bean said. He also mentioned the American auto industry as potentially being hurt by such policies.
In the real estate sector, if unemployment rises because firms are selling fewer goods overseas, this could create less demand in the housing market, which would lower housing prices, Bean said.
“This means inflation should subside due to the drop in demand for other items as well,” he said. He noted that the government would theoretically contribute to that reduced demand.
“Historically, Republicans say they’re fiscally responsible, so there would be a decline in government spending, as well,” if the administration follows history, he said. A number of local industries also have U.S. government contracts for their work.
In November, Hancock Select Board member Elizabeth Villaume suggested that its fire department not count on a $600,000 federal grant for upgrades on its station. The department has submitted an application for Congressional discretionary spending, but Villaume said Trump’s arrival, in addition to Republican House and Senate majorities, puts those funds in danger.
Bean notes a potential impact on local retail, based on the new administration’s policies.
“Unemployment can have a trickle-down effect on retail. We love our Mom-and-Pop stores, and shopping local, but when money gets tight, people switch to big-box stores and Walmart for low prices,” he said.
Asked how young people in high school and college can plan to make their way in such a changing economy, Bean had some advice.
“Do your research. Talk to people in areas you want to work in,” he said. “Ask them what skills and background they’re going to require people to have in order to get hired.”