As the Russia/Ukraine war enters its fourth month, skyrocketing energy costs, waves of refugees, warnings of global food shortages, threats of nuclear war and changing strategic alliances are all ramifications of this bloody conflict.
While America is faced with seemingly intractable problems — the carnage of gun violence, persistent supply chain disruptions, culture wars and an unsettled political future – the ripple effects of the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II continue to spread across the global pond.
From a humanitarian standpoint, the war has created a refugee crisis that has seen, according to late May data from the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), roughly 15% of Ukraine’s population flee the country. To put this in perspective, should 15% of our populace depart, America would lose 49.5 million people. For Ukraine, it is not clear how many of the mostly women and children who have left will return. Consequently, once the war ends, Ukraine’s daunting rebuild will be exacerbated because many of its best and brightest decamped to other countries.
The flip side is the stress placed on the hosting countries, many of which struggle to provide basic services to their citizenry, let alone care for hundreds of thousands — or in Poland’s case, millions — of refugees. Per the UNHCR, by late May 475,000 Ukrainian refugees had fled to Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries. Those refugees now constitute more than 10% of Moldova’s population. That percentage in America, equates to 33 million refugees entering in a three-month period. How would we be able to handle that influx?
On the economic front, we have all become more cognizant of how interconnected the world is. Who, other than global economists, would have known that Ukraine produces such high percentages of basic foodstuffs like wheat, corn and sunflower oil? Although this is already causing pocketbook woes in America, some countries in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are heavily dependent on Russian and Ukrainian goods for domestic food security. The longer those countries are denied access, the more likely they will face political instability.
The price of gas remains for Americans the most-visible effect of the current European conflagration. Russia’s global energy reach, however, is more consequential abroad, as many countries are significantly or almost totally dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. Our allies in the European Union (EU) are struggling to quickly transition to a combination of new fossil-fuel suppliers, expanded renewable use and a rejuvenated focus on nuclear energy. While the current situation presents the EU with the harsh reality of short-term sacrifices, it also offers opportunities to finally clip the continent’s energy umbilical cord to Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Geopolitically, the crisis highlights the growing struggle between democracy and autocracy on the world scene. Since the end of the Cold War 30 years ago, the democratic West has naively pushed for an accommodation with Russia and Communist China based on economic interdependence and common transnational threats, climate change and terrorism being the most prominent. The war, however, has “peeled the autocratic onion” to reveal the true essence of this form of government.
As such, at least in the short term, the West has mostly fallen in line to counter Russia’s naked aggression, sending a clear signal to China about what awaits should it invade Taiwan. The fact that both Finland and Sweden quickly signed up to join NATO is not lost on nations in Southeast Asia that have, in the past, assiduously steered a middle course between China and the United States. Should China choose “military and technical means” to solve its longstanding dispute with Taiwan, expect key countries in Southeast Asia — Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines — to subsequently strengthen ties to the United States and our allies to counter the threat.
Lastly, it is also worth asking what will become of Russia in the aftermath of what has so far been a dismal political and military performance in Ukraine. As the largest country in the world with the biggest stockpile of nuclear weapons, as well as critical natural resources, Moscow will remain a country of immense import, regardless of who rules from the Kremlin.
Thus, the consequences of the war in Ukraine, many already painfully apparent and some yet to manifest themselves, will remain a source of sleepless nights for our foreign policy experts and political leaders for the foreseeable future.
Robert Beck of Peterborough served for 30 years overseas with the United States government in embassies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. He now teaches foreign policy classes at Keene State College’s Cheshire Academy for Lifelong Learning.